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Correlation
of % moves
+56%
In sync
of periods
70%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-01
1,250
These move in the same direction about 70% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~32% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+56%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+53% → +60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,250 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,253
2,512
Normalized
1,253
2,512
Prepared
1,253
2,512
Aligned
1,250
1,250
Invalid removed
R²(i)
32%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,249
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+56%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,249 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,265
A: 3 / B: 1262
Series A
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock (IBKR)
IBKR
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2720
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-sp500_stock-ibkr_daily_5y