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Correlation
of % moves
-31%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
40
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~15 months before IBIT
Watch Building Permits for an early read on IBIT.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-57% → +1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
40 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
799
828
Normalized
799
828
Prepared
799
42
Aligned
40
40
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
38
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
-48%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
IBIT shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with IBIT 15 months from now?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-48%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
761
A: 759 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Series B
IBIT
Stock · 828 raw → 42 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7010
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0053
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-permit_stock-ibit_monthly_5y