Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of % moves
+34%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
40
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Job Openings moves ~13 months before IBIT
Watch Job Openings for an early read on IBIT.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+3% → +60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
40 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
308
828
Normalized
308
828
Prepared
308
42
Aligned
40
40
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
38
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
-68%
+33% stronger than no-shift baseline
IBIT shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does Job Openings today line up with IBIT 13 months from now?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
-68%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-31%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
270
A: 268 / B: 2
Series A
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 308 raw → 308 prepared
Series B
IBIT
Stock · 828 raw → 42 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.9320
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0138
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-jtsjol_stock-ibit_monthly_5y