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Correlation
of % moves
-29%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
40
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Housing Starts moves ~14 months before IBIT
Watch Housing Starts for an early read on IBIT.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-56% → +3%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
40 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
830
Normalized
811
830
Prepared
811
42
Aligned
40
40
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
38
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+14 months
Correlation at this shift
-49%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
IBIT shifted 14 months earlier. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with IBIT 14 months from now?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+14 months
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-64%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
773
A: 771 / B: 2
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
IBIT
Stock · 830 raw → 42 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3837
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0066
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-houst_stock-ibit_monthly_5y