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iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs 10Y-3M Yield Spread
Correlation
of % moves
-20%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-01
1,242
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-25% → -14%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,242 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
11,169
Normalized
1,254
11,169
Prepared
1,254
11,169
Aligned
1,242
1,242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,241
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-20%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,241 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-26%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
83 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
9,939
A: 12 / B: 9927
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,169 raw → 11,169 prepared
Sign agreement
49.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.0345
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-t10y3m_stock-iau_daily_5y