Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
-30%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
60
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,050
Normalized
1,254
1,050
Prepared
61
1,050
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-30%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-25%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
991
A: 1 / B: 990
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,050 raw → 1,050 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0113
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0015
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-payems_stock-iau_monthly_5y