Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-21%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Funds Rate moves ~2 months before IAU
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on IAU.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-45% → +5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
862
Normalized
1,254
862
Prepared
60
862
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
-42%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does iShares Gold Trust (IAU) today line up with Fed Funds Rate 2 months ago?"
56 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
-42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
804
A: 1 / B: 803
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.1611
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0845
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-iau_monthly_5y