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iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs 10Y Treasury Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-20
1,240
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-32% → -22%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,240 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
16,081
Normalized
1,254
16,081
Prepared
1,254
16,081
Aligned
1,240
1,240
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,240
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-27%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,239 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-23%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-41%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
90 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,855
A: 14 / B: 14841
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
FRED · 16,081 raw → 16,081 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4881
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0012
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dgs10_stock-iau_daily_5y