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iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-34%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,238
These move opposite each other about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-39% → -29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,238 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
11,628
Normalized
1,254
11,628
Prepared
1,254
11,628
Aligned
1,238
1,238
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,238
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-34%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,237 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-33%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
148 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,406
A: 16 / B: 10390
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 11,628 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2600
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexsfus_stock-iau_daily_5y