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iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs US Core CPI
Correlation
of % moves
-22%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US Core CPI moves ~16 months before IAU
Watch US Core CPI for an early read on IAU.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-46% → +5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
831
Normalized
1,254
831
Prepared
60
831
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
-48%
+26% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Core CPI shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does iShares Gold Trust (IAU) today line up with US Core CPI 16 months ago?"
35 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-24%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-3%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
775
A: 2 / B: 773
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0093
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0035
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpilfesl_stock-iau_monthly_5y