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iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs Sticky Price CPI
Correlation
of % moves
-24%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Sticky Price CPI moves ~9 months before IAU
Watch Sticky Price CPI for an early read on IAU.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-47% → +2%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
700
Normalized
1,254
700
Prepared
60
700
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does iShares Gold Trust (IAU) today line up with Sticky Price CPI 9 months ago?"
49 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-54%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+29%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
642
A: 1 / B: 641
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 700 raw → 700 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3366
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0084
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_stock-iau_monthly_5y