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iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs Avg Hourly Earnings
Correlation
of % moves
-19%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
60
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
IAU moves ~7 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch IAU for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-19%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
244
Normalized
1,254
244
Prepared
61
244
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
-26%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does iShares Gold Trust (IAU) today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 7 months from now?"
52 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
-26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-21%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+6%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
185
A: 1 / B: 184
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 244 raw → 244 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0066
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0036
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_stock-iau_monthly_5y