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iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs Avg Hourly Earnings
Correlation
of % moves
-22%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~17 months before IAU
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on IAU.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-45% → +4%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
242
Normalized
1,254
242
Prepared
60
242
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
-30%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does iShares Gold Trust (IAU) today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 17 months ago?"
41 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
-30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-21%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+14%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
184
A: 1 / B: 183
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 242 raw → 242 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0082
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0036
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_stock-iau_monthly_5y