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iShares Gold Trust (IAU) vs Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-26%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~16 months before IAU
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on IAU.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-49% → -0%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,288
Normalized
1,254
1,288
Prepared
60
1,288
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
-59%
+32% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does iShares Gold Trust (IAU) today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 16 months ago?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
-59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-28%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,230
A: 1 / B: 1229
Series A
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
IAU
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3612
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0173
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-aaa_stock-iau_monthly_5y