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Humana Inc. (HUM) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+18%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
61
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~18 months before HUM
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on HUM.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+18%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-8% → +41%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
61 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
536
Normalized
1,253
536
Prepared
61
536
Aligned
61
61
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+32%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Humana Inc. (HUM) today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 18 months ago?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
26 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
475
A: 0 / B: 475
Series A
Humana Inc. (HUM)
HUM
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 536 raw → 536 prepared
Sign agreement
96.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4509
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0415
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-hum_monthly_5y