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The Hershey Company (HSY) vs Core PCE Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
+29%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Core PCE Price Index moves ~1 month before HSY
Watch Core PCE Price Index for an early read on HSY.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+4% → +51%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
811
Normalized
1,254
811
Prepared
61
811
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-1 month
Correlation at this shift
+38%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Core PCE Price Index shifted 1 month later. Reads: "Does The Hershey Company (HSY) today line up with Core PCE Price Index 1 month ago?"
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 month
+38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+18%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
754
A: 2 / B: 752
Series A
The Hershey Company (HSY)
HSY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0076
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0030
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-pcepilfe_stock-hsy_monthly_5y