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Correlation
of values
-42%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
808
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate moves ~17 months before Housing Starts
Watch Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate for an early read on Housing Starts.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-42%
Based on values
95% CI
-48% → -37%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
808 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
965
Normalized
808
965
Prepared
808
965
Aligned
808
808
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
808
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
-48%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate 17 months ago?"
791 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+19%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
157
A: 0 / B: 157
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
WTISPLC
FRED · 965 raw → 965 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
79
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0337
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
82.1009
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-houst_fred-wtisplc_monthly_5y