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Correlation
of values
+53%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~28% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+53%
Based on values
95% CI
+44% → +61%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
5,862
Normalized
808
5,862
Prepared
808
282
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
28.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+53%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
280 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+53%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+53%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+35%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
100 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
530
A: 528 / B: 2
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0007
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.0806
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-houst_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y