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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
392
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
-41% → -24%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
392 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
1,704
Normalized
811
1,704
Prepared
811
393
Aligned
392
392
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
392
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
392 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
68 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
420
A: 419 / B: 1
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,704 raw → 393 prepared
Sign agreement
36.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0008
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.1092
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-houst_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y