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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
389
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
-42% → -24%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
389 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
1,692
Normalized
808
1,692
Prepared
808
390
Aligned
389
389
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
389
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
389 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-39%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
64 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
420
A: 419 / B: 1
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 390 prepared
Sign agreement
36.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
28
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0008
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.1111
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-houst_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y