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Correlation
of values
+35%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
119
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
2,512
Normalized
809
2,512
Prepared
809
121
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
12%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
119 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+69%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
51 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
692
A: 690 / B: 2
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.8954
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
21.5496
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-houst_fred-sp500_monthly_5y