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Correlation
of values
+33%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
532
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Housing Starts moves ~18 months before 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Watch Housing Starts for an early read on 10-Year Real Interest Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+33%
Based on values
95% CI
+25% → +40%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
532 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
533
Normalized
808
533
Prepared
808
533
Aligned
532
532
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
532
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+42%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 18 months from now?"
514 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-78%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
277
A: 276 / B: 1
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
47
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0016
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.2004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-houst_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y