Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-18%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
713
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-18%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
713 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
3,104
Normalized
809
3,104
Prepared
809
714
Aligned
713
713
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
3%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
713
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-18%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
713 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-18%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-7%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
97
A: 96 / B: 1
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 714 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
40
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-100.4856
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
504378.5782
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-houst_fred-icsa_monthly_5y