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Correlation
of % moves
+60%
In sync
of periods
71%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-08
1,254
These move in the same direction about 71% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+60%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+56% → +63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
2,515
Normalized
1,255
2,515
Prepared
1,255
2,515
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
R²(i)
35.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,254
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,253 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
105 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+37%
95 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
49 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,262
A: 1 / B: 1261
Series A
HD
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 2,515 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4186
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0005
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-sp500_stock-hd_daily_5y