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Hedera (HBAR) vs Fed Balance Sheet
Correlation
of % moves
-18%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
104
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
HBAR moves ~6 weeks before Fed Balance Sheet
Watch HBAR for an early read on Fed Balance Sheet.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-18%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-36% → +1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
104 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
721
1,223
Normalized
721
1,223
Prepared
105
1,223
Aligned
104
104
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
104
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+6 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-26%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 6 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Hedera (HBAR) today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 6 weeks from now?"
97 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 weeks
-26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-34%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-9%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,120
A: 1 / B: 1119
Series A
Hedera (HBAR)
HBAR
Crypto · 721 raw → 105 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,223 raw → 1,223 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0033
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0008
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-hbar_fred-walcl_weekly_5y