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Halliburton Company (HAL) vs USD/CAD Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-30%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,239
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-35% → -25%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,239 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
13,891
Normalized
1,255
13,891
Prepared
1,255
13,891
Aligned
1,239
1,239
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,239
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-30%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,238 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-31%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
173 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
12,668
A: 16 / B: 12652
Series A
Halliburton Company (HAL)
HAL
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,891 raw → 13,891 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
33
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0477
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0001
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexcaus_stock-hal_daily_5y