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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) vs HY Bond Spread
Correlation
of % moves
-56%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
750
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~31% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-56%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-60% → -50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
750 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
785
Normalized
1,255
785
Prepared
1,255
785
Aligned
750
750
Invalid removed
R²(i)
30.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
750
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-56%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
749 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-29%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
173 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
540
A: 505 / B: 35
Series A
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
GS
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6655
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_stock-gs_daily_5y