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Nonfarm Payrolls vs SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Correlation
of % moves
-23%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
GLD moves ~16 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch GLD for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-23%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-46% → +3%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,051
1,253
Normalized
1,051
1,253
Prepared
1,051
61
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
-32%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does Nonfarm Payrolls today line up with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) 16 months ago?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-24%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
994
A: 992 / B: 2
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,051 raw → 1,051 prepared
Series B
GLD
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-6.2554
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0219
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-payems_stock-gld_monthly_5y