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GBP/USD Exchange Rate vs SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Correlation
of % moves
+32%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-28
1,237
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+27% → +37%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,237 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,957
1,253
Normalized
13,957
1,253
Prepared
13,957
1,253
Aligned
1,237
1,237
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,236
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+32%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,236 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-26%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
12,736
A: 12720 / B: 16
Series A
GBP/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSUK
FRED · 13,957 raw → 13,957 prepared
Series B
GLD
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7250
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexusuk_stock-gld_daily_5y