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Baa Corporate Bond Yield vs SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Correlation
of % moves
-21%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-03
1,243
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-26% → -15%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,243 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
10,205
1,253
Normalized
10,205
1,253
Prepared
10,205
1,253
Aligned
1,243
1,243
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,242
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,242 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
95 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,972
A: 8962 / B: 10
Series A
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,205 raw → 10,205 prepared
Series B
GLD
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2422
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0009
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dbaa_stock-gld_daily_5y