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Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) vs Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-38%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-02
58
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
GILD moves ~1 month before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch GILD for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-58% → -13%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
470
Normalized
1,253
470
Prepared
61
470
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+1 month
Correlation at this shift
-46%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 1 month earlier. Reads: "Does Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD) today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 1 month from now?"
56 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+1 month
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-28%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
415
A: 3 / B: 412
Series A
Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
GILD
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 470 raw → 470 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0569
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0052
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_stock-gild_monthly_5y