SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of values
+92%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
weeksweeks · through 2025-40
92
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~85% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+92%
Based on values
95% CI
+88% → +95%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
92 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,220
240
Normalized
1,220
240
Prepared
1,220
240
Aligned
92
92
Invalid removed
R²(i)
84.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
92
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+92%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
92 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+92%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+89%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-89%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,276
A: 1128 / B: 148
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 1,220 prepared
Series B
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
63.5563
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-gfdegdq188s_fred-walcl_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.