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Correlation
of values
+96%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
240
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~92% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+96%
Based on values
95% CI
+94% → +97%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
240 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
999
240
Normalized
999
240
Prepared
999
240
Aligned
240
240
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
91.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
240
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+96%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
240 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+96%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
125 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
113 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
759
A: 759 / B: 0
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 999 raw → 999 prepared
Series B
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
32.7796
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-gfdegdq188s_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y