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Correlation
of values
+83%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
219
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~68% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Debt-to-GDP Ratio moves ~18 months before NASDAQ Composite
Watch Debt-to-GDP Ratio for an early read on NASDAQ Composite.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+83%
Based on values
95% CI
+78% → +86%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
219 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
13,932
Normalized
240
13,932
Prepared
240
664
Aligned
219
219
Invalid removed
R²(i)
68.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
219
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+88%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
NASDAQ Composite shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Debt-to-GDP Ratio today line up with NASDAQ Composite 18 months from now?"
201 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+83%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+29%
86 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+46%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
102 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
466
A: 21 / B: 445
Series A
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 13,932 raw → 664 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
127.0978
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-5361.2903
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-gfdegdq188s_fred-nasdaqcom_monthly_5y