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Correlation
of values
+97%
In sync
of periods
82%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
240
These move in the same direction about 82% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~94% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
82.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+97%
Based on values
95% CI
+96% → +98%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
240 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
999
240
Normalized
999
240
Prepared
999
240
Aligned
240
240
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
94.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
240
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
240 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
195 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
43 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
759
A: 759 / B: 0
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 999 raw → 999 prepared
Series B
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
6.3677
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2050085.8173
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-gfdebtn_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y