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Correlation
of values
-67%
In sync
of periods
—
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
177
These move together
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~45% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
N/A
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-67%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
177 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
241
534
Normalized
241
534
Prepared
241
534
Aligned
177
177
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
45%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
177
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-67%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
177 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-67%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
421
A: 64 / B: 357
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 241 raw → 241 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 534 raw → 534 prepared
Sign agreement
96.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.8531
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-gfdebtn_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y