SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+94%
of values
In sync
62%
of periods
History
219
weeks · through 2025-40
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~88% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
+92% → +95%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
219 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
240
13,927
Normalized
240
13,927
Prepared
240
2,883
Aligned
219
219
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
88.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
219
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
219 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+72%
129 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
83 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,685
A: 21 / B: 2664
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
NASDAQ Composite
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 13,927 raw → 2,883 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-911.2811
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-gfdebtn_fred-nasdaqcom_5y