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GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-26%
In sync
of periods
22%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
25
These move in the same direction about 22% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
GEV moves ~4 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch GEV for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
22.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-61% → +17%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
25 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
551
797
Normalized
551
797
Prepared
27
797
Aligned
25
25
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
25
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+52%
+26% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 4 months from now?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
774
A: 2 / B: 772
Series A
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)
GEV
Stock · 551 raw → 27 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6504
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0249
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-gev_monthly_5y