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GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. Common Stock (GEHC) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
-37%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
41
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
41 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
880
708
Normalized
880
708
Prepared
43
708
Aligned
41
41
Invalid removed
14%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
40
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
40 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-44%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-34%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
669
A: 2 / B: 667
Series A
GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. Common Stock (GEHC)
GEHC
Stock · 880 raw → 43 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4.1052
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0231
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-gehc_monthly_5y