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Correlation
of % moves
-29%
In sync
of periods
34%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
60
These move in the same direction about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~16 months before GDX
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on GDX.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
34%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-51% → -3%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,292
1,253
Normalized
1,292
1,253
Prepared
1,292
61
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
-44%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
GDX shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does Aaa Corporate Bond Yield today line up with GDX 16 months from now?"
43 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-38%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,233
A: 1232 / B: 1
Series A
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Series B
GDX
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5043
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0261
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-aaa_stock-gdx_monthly_5y