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Correlation
of values
-38%
In sync
of periods
—
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
178
These move together
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
N/A
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -25%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
178 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
11,110
352
Normalized
11,110
352
Prepared
534
352
Aligned
178
178
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
178
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: 0 to 0 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-38%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
178 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
530
A: 356 / B: 174
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 534 prepared
Series B
Potential GDP
GDPPOT
FRED · 352 raw → 352 prepared
Sign agreement
89.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1449.8893
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
17404.1587
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-gdppot_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y