SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+97%
of values
In sync
83%
of periods
History
309
days · through 2026-01-01
These move in the same direction about 83% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~95% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
83.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+97%
Based on values
95% CI
+97% → +98%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
309 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,047
352
Normalized
1,047
352
Prepared
1,047
352
Aligned
309
309
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
94.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
309
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
309 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+32%
205 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
44 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
781
A: 738 / B: 43
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Series B
Potential GDP
GDPPOT
FRED · 352 raw → 352 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1743
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-6892.3479
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-gdppot_fred-payems_5y