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Correlation
of values
+79%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
101
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~62% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Job Openings moves ~8 months before Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
Watch Job Openings for an early read on Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+79%
Based on values
95% CI
+70% → +85%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
101 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
304
317
Normalized
304
317
Prepared
304
317
Aligned
101
101
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
62.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
101
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+8 months
Correlation at this shift
+85%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator shifted 8 months earlier. Reads: "Does Job Openings today line up with Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator 8 months from now?"
93 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+8 months
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+46%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
419
A: 203 / B: 216
Series A
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 304 raw → 304 prepared
Series B
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
GDPDEF
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0053
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
67.4891
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-gdpdef_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y