Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+93%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
240
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~86% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+93%
Based on values
95% CI
+91% → +95%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
240 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
317
Normalized
240
317
Prepared
240
317
Aligned
240
240
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
86.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
240
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+93%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
240 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+93%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
139 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
99 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
77
A: 0 / B: 77
Series A
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
Gross Domestic Product: Implicit Price Deflator
GDPDEF
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.9813
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.5311
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-gdpdef_fred-gfdegdq188s_monthly_5y