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Correlation
of values
+98%
In sync
of periods
92%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
317
These move in the same direction about 92% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~95% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
91.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+98%
Based on values
95% CI
+97% → +98%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
317 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
317
317
Normalized
317
317
Prepared
317
317
Aligned
317
317
Invalid removed
R²(i)
95.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
317
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
317 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+98%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+98%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+82%
214 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+100%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-3%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
US GDP
GDP
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
Real GDP
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7560
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4450.0758
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-gdp_fred-gdpc1_monthly_5y