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Correlation
of % moves
+50%
In sync
of periods
75%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
499
These move in the same direction about 75% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
75%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+50%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+43% → +56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
499 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,171
729
Normalized
1,171
729
Prepared
1,171
729
Aligned
499
499
Invalid removed
R²(i)
25%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
498
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+50%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
498 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+39%
94 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+54%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
56 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
902
A: 672 / B: 230
Series A
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC)
GBTC
Stock · 1,171 raw → 1,171 prepared
Series B
Stellar (XLM)
XLM
Crypto · 729 raw → 729 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0135
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-xlm_stock-gbtc_daily_5y