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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) vs Real Personal Consumption
Correlation
of % moves
+38%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
52
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+38%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+12% → +59%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
52 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,102
231
Normalized
1,102
231
Prepared
54
231
Aligned
52
52
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
52
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+38%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
51 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
181
A: 2 / B: 179
Series A
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC)
GBTC
Stock · 1,102 raw → 54 prepared
Series B
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0079
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0020
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-pcec96_stock-gbtc_monthly_5y