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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) vs USD/VES Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-7%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,085
These move opposite each other about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-7%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-13% → -1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,085 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,099
6,606
Normalized
1,099
6,606
Prepared
1,099
6,606
Aligned
1,085
1,085
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,085
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-7%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,084 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-7%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-7%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
115 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
119 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,535
A: 14 / B: 5521
Series A
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC)
GBTC
Stock · 1,099 raw → 1,099 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 6,606 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0165
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0044
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_stock-gbtc_daily_5y