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Correlation
of values
+40%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
1,223
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~7 weeks before US Gas Price
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on US Gas Price.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+40%
Based on values
95% CI
+35% → +45%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,223 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,862
1,862
Normalized
5,862
1,862
Prepared
1,224
1,862
Aligned
1,223
1,223
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
16.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,223
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+7 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+46%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Gas Price shifted 7 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does 5Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with US Gas Price 7 weeks from now?"
1,216 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 weeks
+46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
640
A: 1 / B: 639
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 1,224 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,862 raw → 1,862 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
59
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4814
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.8869
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-t5yie_weekly_5y