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Correlation
of values
+76%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
412
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~58% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+76%
Based on values
95% CI
+72% → +80%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
412 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
412
1,862
Normalized
412
1,862
Prepared
412
431
Aligned
412
412
Invalid removed
R²(i)
58.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
412
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+76%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
412 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+59%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
19
A: 0 / B: 19
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,862 raw → 431 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.5385
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y