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Correlation
of values
+57%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-28
711
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~33% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US Gas Price moves ~12 weeks before Overnight Reverse Repo
Watch US Gas Price for an early read on Overnight Reverse Repo.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+57%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
711 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,277
1,867
Normalized
3,277
1,867
Prepared
711
1,867
Aligned
711
711
Invalid removed
33%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
711
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+63%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Gas Price shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Overnight Reverse Repo today line up with US Gas Price 12 weeks ago?"
657 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-34%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,156
A: 0 / B: 1156
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,277 raw → 711 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,867 raw → 1,867 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.7108
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-rrpontsyd_weekly_5y