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Correlation
of values
+58%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
706
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US Gas Price moves ~12 weeks before Overnight Reverse Repo
Watch US Gas Price for an early read on Overnight Reverse Repo.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on values
95% CI
+53% → +63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
706 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,258
1,862
Normalized
3,258
1,862
Prepared
707
1,862
Aligned
706
706
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
706
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+65%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Gas Price shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does Overnight Reverse Repo today line up with US Gas Price 12 weeks ago?"
652 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,157
A: 1 / B: 1156
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,258 raw → 707 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,862 raw → 1,862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.6991
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-rrpontsyd_weekly_5y