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Correlation
of values
-69%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
430
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~48% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~18 months before US Gas Price
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on US Gas Price.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-69%
Based on values
95% CI
-74% → -64%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
430 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
1,862
Normalized
533
1,862
Prepared
533
431
Aligned
430
430
Invalid removed
R²(i)
48.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
430
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-78%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Gas Price shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10-Year Real Interest Rate today line up with US Gas Price 18 months from now?"
412 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
46 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
104
A: 103 / B: 1
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,862 raw → 431 prepared
Sign agreement
94.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5610
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.2338
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y