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Correlation
of values
-68%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
433
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~47% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~18 months before US Gas Price
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on US Gas Price.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-68%
Based on values
95% CI
-73% → -63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
433 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
536
1,875
Normalized
536
1,875
Prepared
536
433
Aligned
433
433
Invalid removed
R²(i)
47%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
433
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-77%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Gas Price shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10-Year Real Interest Rate today line up with US Gas Price 18 months from now?"
415 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-19%
28 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
103
A: 103 / B: 0
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 536 raw → 536 prepared
Series B
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,875 raw → 433 prepared
Sign agreement
94.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5578
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.2418
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-gasregw_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y